My MacBook Air (I am still in love)
XenSource
Sun
Lies and damn lies about open source on Intel’s website We made an attempt on this 2 weeks back but our petard was hoisted by a shoddy conference bridge. Technology is only occasionally my friend.

Open Season Episode 11

It all looks very cool but as a cell phone guy, I think it’s important to note that similar technology is available on existing cell phones from Sony Ericsson. The Sony Ericsson W910 uses a “shake control” motion sensor that allows you to manipulate the phone’s functions by moving the phone itself. Like the Sony Ericsson W580, you can change music player tracks by flicking your wrist, but the W910 takes the technology into gaming as well. Instead of using the navigation controls or keypad buttons to play a game, you can tip the handset forward, backward, and to either side. It’s a lot like a Wii controller and quite similar to what Apple demonstrated today. At the CTIA show last autumn, I tried playing a game called Marble Madness, which requires you to move a marble through a series of ramps without falling off the edges. And one more thing: the motion sensor also detects which way you’re holding it the phone and then automatically changes the screen’s layout from portrait to landscape.

When Apple first unveiled the iPhone’s nifty accelerometer (the fancy part that rotates the display’s orientation when you tip the phone), it was only natural to assume that the feature would eventually be used for gaming. And with today’s announcement of the
iPhone software developer’s kit, we saw just that. Scott Forstall, Apple’s vice president of iPhone software, showed a game called Touch Fighter that involved moving the iPhone like a steering wheel. Other games will follow, including titles from Sega and Electronic Arts.

I know what you’re saying; you’re asking me how I can even compare the W910 with the iPhone. You’re correct that in many ways the iPhone is superior; its gorgeous display is much more conducive to extended gameplay. But as far as the screen-tipping technology goes, Sony Ericsson is no slouch.

Sony Ericsson W910

But look out for video advertising. Jupiter predicts that static and text ads will account for 63 percent of banner advertising in 2008, but that share is expected to drop to 41 percent by 2013 as advertisers look to rich media and video. Video advertising, in fact, is expected to quadruple to $5.1 billion in 2013.

The economy may be lousy, but the amount of money spent on online advertising should continue to grow at double-digit rates all the way through to 2013, according to a report released Monday by JupiterResearch.

Total online ad spending is expected to increase just a little less than 20 percent this year, from $19.9 billion in 2007 to $23.8 billion. By 2013, Jupiter expects total online ad spending to hit $43.4 billion. (For you stat aficionados, that’s a compound annual growth rate of 13 percent. By comparison, offline advertising is only expected to have a CAGR of 4 percent over the same period.)

Likewise, classified ad spending is forecast to be 20 percent of the total online ad market, while growing at annual 9 percent rate.

Display advertising and classified advertising aren’t expected to fare quite as well. Because of short-term economic problems, display advertising growth should drop slightly, but rebound for 14 percent annual growth over the full period of the report.

The online world’s share of advertising is also expected to increase, but there’s still plenty of room to grow. Last year, Jupiter says online ads accounted for 8.4 percent of total ad spending in the U.S. That’s expected to grow to 9.6 percent this year, 10.7 percent next year, and 14.3 percent in 2013.

Earlier on Wednesday Apple released iPhone OS 3.0. CNET also has a review of the new iPhone 3G S.

If you qualify for the best upgrade pricing, you will pay $199 for the 16GB model and $299 for the 32GB model–these are the same prices AT&T will charge new customers signing up for a two-year contract. If you don’t fall into either of those categories, you may be eligible for what AT&T calls its “early upgrade pricing”: $399 and $499 for the 16GB and 32GB models, respectively.

AT&T received harsh criticism from some customers who wanted to upgrade to the new
iPhone 3G S but discovered they would not receive the best upgrade price. However, the company on Wednesday changed its tune.

If you pre-ordered from Apple, it will issue a credit for the difference.

AT&T will examine several factors to determine eligibility (PDF) including the amount of money you spend a month. For example, if you spend more than $99 a month on services, the company said you are more likely to be eligible for an upgrade after 12 to 18 months.

Previously, early iPhone 3G adopters would have had to pay the “early upgrade pricing”–which had some customers upset.

If you already pre-ordered the iPhone 3G S and find that you’re now eligible for the lower price, don’t worry, you’ll be taken care of. AT&T said it would adjust the price of the phone when you pick it up from the store it was ordered from. If you bought it online from AT&T, it will issue a credit.

If you still don’t qualify for the iPhone upgrade pricing, but really want to have one, you can buy a 16GB model without a contract for $599 or a 32GB model for $699.

Saying it has been “listening to their customers,” AT&T is changing its policy to allow customers who are eligible for an upgrade in July, August, or September to upgrade starting on Thursday at what it calls the “best upgrade pricing.” The upgrade eligibility tools won’t reflect the change in policy until Thursday, the company said.

You can also try an Apple retail store if you’re lucky enough to live close to one. If not, AT&T says you can order the iPhone from Apple’s online store.

If there are people shopping for the latest console with little knowledge of their differences that find two out of the three unavailable in stores, while the third is fully stocked, what does that tell the person? If it were me, I’d say that the available console was either just delivered today or it sucks. And if it sucks, why would I buy it?

I doubt it.

There’s no debating the fact that the Xbox 360 and Wii have sold exceptionally well over the past two years, but we can debate exactly how the companies did it. Is it possible that each and every sale of the Nintendo Wii was a result of everyone’s fascination with the new console? Sure.

In the video game industry hardware sales are an extremely important factor in deciding which console a game should be developed for. Realizing this, companies like Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft have done their best to keep consoles in the hands of consumers and sell as many systems as possible each month.

After all, how many times have we been told by Nintendo that it’s unable to forecast demand? Even today, Microsoft announced that it’s experiencing
Xbox 360 shortages because the company “misjudged demand.”

Historically, vendors cut prices to dump stock. But today, these companies may be trying to hold back shipments in an attempt to increase demand and sell even more consoles than imagined.

So what is it about a scarce product that makes us want it more? Does it somehow tell us that the device is far more valuable and worthwhile if it’s not available? If so, does that line of thinking even make sense?

In essence, hardware scarcity is running rampant and yet, demand for these devices has grown at an astounding rate. In fact, most experts in the field think 2008 could be the biggest year for gaming ever.

Let’s be honest–would the
Wii fervor be what it is today if the console was readily available since its launch? Would Nintendo still trumpet its console’s ability to beat out demand because of its “immense popularity”?

It’s simple economics, folks. And it could very well be happening right under your nose.

But isn’t it also possible that the Wii has sold well because of all the coverage media outlets were giving to it saying it’s one of the holiday season’s most popular gift ideas and it’s barely available? Surely that must speak to the narcissist in all of us who wants to be one of the few people on the block with the shiniest new gadget, right?

Even though there’s really no way to prove that any of the three console manufacturers are using scarcity as a marketing technique, the evidence seems overwhelming.

Really? If that’s true, Microsoft–one of the world’s largest and richest companies–may want to spend some of that extra cash on some better researchers. Sure, there’s no precise way to calculate exactly how many consoles will be sold in the coming months, but it’s as if these companies have subscribed to the belief that “less is more.”

Of course, some critics would say that I’m nuts for even thinking that companies would intentionally turn customers away, and I can understand that point. But maybe those people should look at the big picture.

So, in a moment of confusion, that person leaves the store with nothing to show for the trek. And just one or two days later, they’ll call the store up to see when the next shipment will be in so they can be first in line. All the while, that console that’s readily available sits there waiting for the next sucker.

The video game business is like none other. Instead of being replaced each year or becoming obsolete quickly, video game consoles can last for the long haul. Because of that, sales tend to drop off toward the end of the second year in the cycle and hardware manufacturers constantly try to find ways to sell the inventory.

And while some of the more common practices of selling consoles are already used–promotion of a software library, marketing, and pricing–a relatively new phenomenon has developed where console availability has dropped significantly and hardware sales stay at a relatively steady, yet inflated level.

The United States is the only developed nation that has not ratified the Basel convention. The Government Accountability Office told Congress last week that should be remedied, so that recycling companies stop sending hazardous e-waste to developing countries.

WM Recycle America announced Wednesday it is committing to the Basel Action Network e-Stewards Pledge. Along with committing signatories to the statutes of the Basel Convention about exporting e-waste, the pledge also requires organizations to prevent hazardous e-waste from entering municipal incinerators or landfills.

“Consumers need to know who are the legitimate recyclers that will not simply take their money and ship their old electronic materials for processing in developing countries or dispose of them in a landfill,” said Sarah Westervelt of the Basel Action Network.

Neither Congress nor the Bush administration is moving quickly to adopt international electronic-waste standards, but some technology companies are.

Are you worried about Sony entering the SLR market, too?

Westfall: Between us and Nikon, we’ve got 90 percent of the SLR market. Sony is only in the 5 percent range so far.

That said, we are continuing to investigate. We’re not disputing anything Rob wrote–he’s made a fair and objective test. We have no argument except that the 1D Mark III is a lot closer (to the 1D Mark II N’s autofocus performance) in overall performance than his severe tests indicate at first glance and that he doesn’t test the full range of conditions. There’s more to it.

With Nikon and now Sony adding weight to the full-frame market, what role is there for the in-between sensor size, APS-H? (It’s about halfway between the full-frame sensors used in the high-end SLRs and the APS-C sensors use in the top-selling models such as the Rebel XTi and 40D. The APS-H is used in the 1D Mark III and its predecessors.)

Westfall: When we introduced APS-H in 2001 with the original EOS-1D, the idea was to compete against other professional DSLRs with APS-C. In that respect it has been extremely successful. At that point it was about what the competition had to offer. It’s only been in the last six months that there has been an alternative. We’ve had a good long run with APS-H.

LAS VEGAS–Two’s company, three’s a crowd, and Canon’s Chuck Westfall is a lot less lonely these days.

Westfall is a camera tech guru and the technical adviser for Canon USA’s professional products marketing division. In his 25 years at Canon, he’s amassed an encyclopedic knowledge not only of official camera specs but also deeply buried engineering details.

Are you getting pressure to add geotagging support from Web sites such as Google and Yahoo that enable users to make use of geotagged photos?

Westfall: Mostly we’re hearing from the vertical markets–professional, commercial, and industrial applications. And the military.

(Credit:
Canon)

Some envision geotagging as an aspect of “autotagging,” in which a rich set of metadata is recorded when the photograph is taken. It might be possible to combine face recognition with autotagging to label photos automatically.

With our PowerShot line, we started autotagging a year ago. We call it “My Category.” It has a total of five or six presets and three customizable tags. When you choose a scene mode, it associates for example a “landscape” tag. It can be done in review, too–you can apply it after the fact. For a camera with face recognition, we know when people are present. This will become much more valuable in the future. Facial recognition is a very powerful feature.

What’s changing in the compact camera market?

Westfall: The pricing on these cameras will continue to decline. It’s become a more commoditized market, but it’s bigger. The forecast for the next three years is it will continue to grow. CIPA (the Camera and Imaging Products Association) forecasts global shipments of 126 million units in 2010 compared to 93 million last year. The challenge is to continue to expand the feature set in the face of price erosion while maintaining profitability. We’ve got good technology and the highest level of profitability in the digital camera market.

There’s a new version of CompactFlash memory cards under development that uses the Serial ATA technology rather than the current parallel ATA. You guys use CompactFlash in your SLRs. Will that technology catch on?

Westfall: It remains to be seen. What drives the market is cost and performance issues and availability. That’s one reason we elected to wait until now to switch to SD (memory cards) for our Rebel line. The availability of SD cards is better now than even a year ago, and people are more comfortable with it.

Geotagging is a hot subject, and much of the discussion at the PMA show seems to have moved from when it will arrive in cameras rather than whether it will. When do you think it will?

Westfall: The desirability of that feature is quite clear. You can see reasons why–classifying, sorting, and searching photos–especially with the advances in technology starting to appear that is taking advantage of the (location) information. That’s why we started putting in the optional capability with the wireless transmitters (accessories available for higher-end Canon SLRs).

Though Canon is repairing affected 1D Mark III models and has issued a firmware update, the issue still hasn’t gone away: Rob Galbraith, the photographer and consultant whose tests brought the problem to light, still believes the 1D Mark III’s predecessor has better autofocus, and he reported Monday that Canon is working on yet another fix.

Are there any developments in battery technology?

Westfall: Lithium-ion is still dominant. Battery manufacturers have been able to increase the storage density lately. The Canon Rebel XSi battery has a capacity of 1080 milliamp-hours compared to 720 for the Rebel XTi (whose battery is about the same size).

Going forward, it remains to be seen whether it will continue to be a desirable format. We’re not ready to say it’s over.

Is there a unique advantage APS-H has over full-frame sensors besides price? Nikon’s D3 is a full-frame competitor to the 1D Mark III at about the same cost.

Westfall: At this point, no. Price would be the only thing.

The jump from 2 megapixels to 4 megapixels is significant, but the jump from 10 to 12 is less dramatic. Is the megapixel race over?

Westfall: We’re trying to upgrade the entire camera. The megapixels rating is only one thing. When upgrading, you have to look at more aspects.

With pricing pressures, will you outsource more manufacturing to outside companies?

Westfall: That’s not for us. We’ve increased our Japanese facility for better R&D and manufacturing. We have some outside manufacturing, especially in the point-and-shoot cameras. But we doubled the capacity of our main camera plant in the last two years. To control costs, we’re developing more automation in manufacturing.

CNET News.com: Sony now has said it’ll join Canon and Nikon in offering a full-frame camera–its flagship 24.6-megapixel SLR due to launch by the end of the year.

Westfall: It’s quite flattering the other companies have recognized what we’ve known for years–that full-frame is quite a desirable imaging format. I think the full-frame market is set to expand in 2008. There’s no doubt about it.

So is it better at autofocus than the 1D Mark II N (the camera’s predecessor)?

Westfall: Overall, yes. The system has a lot more to it. There are improvements to the Mark III’s autofocus sensor, with 19 cross-type focusing points throughout the frame compared to 7 in the center for the 1D Mark II N. This is an area Rob Galbraith’s tests did not address. And there are a lot more customization settings to be able to tweak autofocus accuracy according to the way you shoot–focus priority versus release priority for example.

And unlike with LCDs, it means you have more of the technology that actually ships in a camera under the Canon roof?

Westfall: Right. We’re looking to implement OLED in all our consumer products: digital still cameras, camcorders, and inkjet printers.

Do you think you’ve resolved the 1D Mark III autofocus issue?

The hardware fix and firmware update has effectively brought the camera within our design specifications. Under the vast majority of study conditions, the camera is functioning exactly the way we expected it to.

Read on for Westfall’s response to the autofocus issue and other thoughts.

How far away is the geotagging era?

Westfall: There’s no doubt we’ll see cameras with built-in GPS within the next two years, possibly sooner. I’m not able to give guidance regarding Canon specifically.

Westfall shared his opinions about the full-frame market and other camera trends during the Photo Marketing Association trade show here. He also discussed fuel cells to replace batteries, flash memory technology, OLED displays, and geotagging.

Canon once was the sole camera company offering a digital SLR whose sensor is the size of a full frame of 35mm film, a technology that can increase the performance advantage and price penalty that SLR cameras already have compared with compact cameras. In November, though, Nikon began selling its full-frame rival, the D3, and last week Sony said it will launch its own full-frame competitor by the end of 2008.

Update 5:40 p.m. PST: Westfall requested a few minor changes to his quotations for clarity, such as changing “they” to “battery manufacturers,” and I obliged.

Chuck Westfall

Update at 8 a.m. PST on February 7: Westfall’s title at Canon has changed and been duly noted.

Who’s the top competitor?

Westfall: Sony is a very strong competitor. Once you get past them, there are a lot of other companies in there.

Is there anything more radical on the horizon?

Westfall: Fuel cells. Within the same physical space, you have maybe twice the capacity as lithium-ion batteries. There’s a lot of incentive to deliver that. And it’s environmentally friendly–it’s disposable and refillable.

(Credit:
Canon)

I was interested that the 1Ds Mark III has an SD card slot in it as well as a CompactFlash slot.

Westfall: We actually started that with the 1D Mark II in 2004. We were able to add a second slot without changing the overall size of the camera. Now you see a second slot capability on other cameras.

A prototype Canon EOS-5D SLR using a OLED display.

It’s common knowledge that Canon is investing in OLED manufacturing ability, making big acquisitions last year. We have the infrastructure needed to bring this online.

Samsung is showing its NV24 HD camera, which uses an OLED (organic light-emitting diode) display. Is Canon planning on making that shift?

Westfall: Yes, definitely. We began exploring OLED several years ago. We showed in 2005 a prototype EOS-5D SLR. It was demonstrably brighter, had better color accuracy, and lower power consumption.

SAN DIEGO–Why carry a computer laden down with data and applications with you everywhere when you could access all that information from any browser?

G.ho.st allows a virtual computer to be accessible via mobile devices like the iPhone.

(Credit:
Daniel Terdiman/CNET Networks)

Further, the service will allow you run productivity applications that can access Word documents, email messages and even PowerPoint presentations.

This means that it will be possible, with the iPhone and other mobile phones, to access much of what is available on your computer. It may not make it possible to do everything that you can do on a full browser, but at the very least, it would be possible to find, examine and modify data without having to be on a full computer.

Already, the company, whose name is also their URL, has a browser-based version that allows anyone to access all this data from anywhere. The idea is that by doing it this way instead of through traditional virtual computer software, which requires a lot of configuration, you can access your data from any computer.

That’s the proposition behind an Israeli company known as G.ho.st, which presented at DemoFall here Monday afternoon.

I had to eat a little crow this morning. Yesterday I recommended that CNET One More Thing Apple blogger Tom Krazit use CoverItLive to liveblog the Steve Job Macworld keynote (see review: Ultimate Liveblogging Tool: CoverItLive). He declined. And good thing, too, since CoverItLive choked during the keynote. The failure was because of a minor programming slip-up, not the platform’s inability to scale to hundreds of thousands of users, CEO Keith McSpurren told me. But it doesn’t matter. In the liveblogging Superbowl, CoverItLive “tripped over its own laces,” McSpurren admitted. Bloggers burned by the outage included CrunchGear, Fake Steve Jobs, MacDailyNews, and about 25 other blogs. Some sites posted messages sending their readers elsewhere, including to Twitter.

Which also failed.

With CoverItLive and Twitter out of action, traffic continued to pour into other, more traditional blogging platforms, many of which were already reeling under the load of having, basically, all of their regular readers hitting refresh every 5 seconds looking for updates. CNET’s own blogging platform, which hosts the One More Thing blog as well as Webware, struggled and collapsed, generating error pages 23 percent of the time. Engadget failed, too.

To its credit, Gizmodo stayed up, although it did get slow, according to reports I got. I did not get any reports of TUAW failing, and people I know say that MacRumors’ special liveblog site, MacRumorsLive, which has its own home-grown AJAX-based liveblog platform, did great.

This year’s Stevenote liveblog fiasco reminded me of the 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge, in which the majority of the robot
car contenders drove into walls or otherwise failed. Of course, in the second competition, in 2005, several cars finished, some spectacularly. Liveblogging is like that. The idea is great, the world wants it, but most of the platforms need more tuning.

Google releases final Android programming kit

Senator warns of DTV-transition ‘crisis’

Listen now:

Digg raises $28.7 million in Series C round

Download today’s podcast

Today’s stories:

The Android software developer kit will allow programmers to create applications that will run on Android phones, even before T-Mobile starts selling the first Android-powered G1 on October 22.

‘Mad Men’ star leads Yahoo’s pitch to Madison Avenue

Ning closes in on 500,000 users

Cisco ramps up collaboration software portfolio

An Oakland Raiders executive went ballistic in front of a room full of reporters–well, no big deal about that. It happens all the time in sports. But wait, we’re in the Internet world where EVERYONE is watching.

Oracle and Intel jump on a cloud